Evolving regional Dynamics in west Asia and North Africa

 

 

 

What is Regional Dynamics? It is an ongoing dynamics

Is it Evolving?

A Scenario There is uncertainty, power vacuum filled by radical actors, brutal violence in Syria, Libya

and Iraq, There is significant change in the region’s strategic landscape, reverberation of the Arab spring

created ripples in many parts of the world, weakening state structure and boosting sectarianism and

tribalism and there is manifestation of all kind of division

The situations will remain the same for a long time

Different Scenarios in Different Nations (Region in General)

 

WANA is like a Black hole

Why the alliances are dynamic

A divided GCC and endeavors for inclusion of others like Jordan and Morocco

Growing rivalry between Qatar and Saudi Arabia – that was visible in Lebanon, Palestine , Iraq and

Syrian civil war where Qatar has dominated as regional hegemony.

Iranian Nuclear Deal- it has further alienated the Gulf nations and there is perception that Iran would the

region as bargain chip against the Monarch and fill the power vacuum. ( Iranian Problems existed for ten

years and technically for thirty years )

Shiite –Sunni Rivalry and Persian –Arab rivalry

Transformation of geopolitics is closely tied to the oil and discovery of shale gas is likely to have impact

on the region.

Rise of ISIS and non-state Actors

Rise of tribalism

Rise of Political Islam

Declining Role of US in the Region and Saudi suspicion of US and absence of any other power Saudi

could rely. American retrenchment from its long accepted role a the security guarantor of the region

Changing Nature of Alliances and Encampment

Movement of Ideas Spillover to India.

Post nuclear deal Iran to be more aggressive in the region.

Why West Asia a is Important for us and how the present scenario bring together and create a common

worldview on issues like terrorism

Worldview of the Region from Indian Perspective.

 

Libya very fertile and tempting for terrorism

ISIS

Turkish approach to the evolution

Turkey and Iran are closer for year now

Turkey-Egypt cold war continues

Islamic Reform what Elsisse and Azhar clergy talked about?

MBH not faithful to te constitution and its people

Azhar played an important role and MBH is not only Islam and does not represent Islam

Egypt will never hit and cross the international norms to strike another Arab state

Egypt is making alliance under the Arab League.

In Yemen concern is national security and maritime blockade but working with Arab nations to stop

malicious design against Gulf-Aden- Babal-Mandab- Swiss Canal

Egypt asserting its heritage of leading political role and its intervention in Yemen because of national

security. Egypt wants its position back as a genuine player in the global politics

Egypt as a part of Arab league to protect gulf security where India and Egypt can come together

Egypt does not pursue the policy of sectarian and wants a solution to the Syrian and Libyan crisis

Sissi rescued Egypt form the situations of Libya and Syria

How Evolving Dynamics it is Impacting India:

First issue is sectarian –Rivalry between India and Iran-India has major chunk of Shiite

Second issue is the rise of Islamism- in India too there are Islamist movement who are aspiring

to be powerful and seek legitimacy.

Third issue is the rise of ISIS- There are reports that several coming and joining the ISIS and

there are reports of website in Urdu and vernacular languages.

The fourth issue is Oil-Energy Relations between Asia (India) and the Gulf – Gulf is

extremely critical for India because it is India’s largest socio-economic partner and main source

of its hydrocarbon n imports.

How does India look at West Asia and Indian wants a solution should come from the region

alone and a good luck.

India does not believe in sectarian policy as proved form the composition of the delegation but it

is apprehensive of the growing tension there.

 

Iran and GCC

 

The region is the most volatile region of the world and relations among them can only be

analyzed under the changing dynamics of the geostrategic environment and the political

contexts. The longest war of Iran and Iraq, Iraqi occupation of Kuwait and US occupation of Iraq

are some of the marking point of the gulf. The cumulative effects of these events induced a too

powerful vortex and embroiled the entire region into a perpetual conflict which is become more

complex with each passing day. The region has been transformed into a theatre of conflicts and

low intensity of intra and inters states war. The region has also been transformed into the battle

ground of the remnants of the cold war politics because of the involvement of the external

powers and the unfolding ideological and sectarian contestation and conflicts.

The predominant narratives on relationship between Iran and the Arab Gulf region states are

couched in polemical language of different and opposing civilization and nationalistic identity,

conflicting territorial claims, ideological rivalries and regional aspirations.

Arabs and Iranians (Persians), over the centuries, have viewed each other with suspicion,

distrust, and fear. Whereas Iranians have viewed themselves in terms of Iran’s ancient

civilization history, vast geographical terrains and large settled population and tended to derive a

sense of superiority towards their Arab neighbors, the Arabs have been influenced by Arab

nationalism and have disliked and distrusted their Persian neighbor.

Iran does not deal with the GCC as collective body of regional countries

Iran deals bilaterally

Since the emergence and consolidation of the modern state system in the region, Iran has

considered its own hegemony to be natural and inevitable, and the Gulf a “Persian Lake”. In

objectives terms, its population and land mass are immensely greater than those of any of the

Arab Gulf states, its economy more developed and diversified, its science and technology more

advanced , and its military more powerful.

 

Dynamics of Turkey—Saudi Arabia Relationship: Limits and Constraints

 

“New paradigm” is emerging to redefine and describe their relationship. This “new paradigm”

is based on the revisionist approach of history. This revisionist approach is motivating both the

sides in the process of self rediscovery as well as rediscovery of each other. To reinforce this so

called emerging “new paradigm”, there are literatures focusing the idea of the emergence of

“neo-Ottomanism”, revivalism of Islamic Ummah, ascendancy of political Islam geared to

establish caliphate system…etc

 

The AKP regime supposedly with roots in Islamic heritage and the current Arab Spring upsurge

has further reinforced this either real or imagined feeling of kinship between Arabs and Turks.

Turkish model is being talked as the model for the Arab world.

Turkey:-

 

There are external and domestic factors which have provided new dynamics in Turkey’s foreign

policy orientation and therefore have cause greater stronger ties between Turkey and its

immediate Arab and the GCC states.